Notes on private credit, written from the data.
Longer pieces on what the filings, fundraising numbers and bank balance sheets show. Posts carry charts with source and vintage and are tagged by theme. Older posts (2021–2024, banking and monetary policy) sit under Archive.
Europe's private credit fundraising just hit a record — and ELTIF 2.0 has opened a second fundraising dimension
European private credit fundraising hit a record in 2025-2026, with $65bn raised in just nine months and six funds clearing €10bn, led by Ares Europe VI at €17.1bn. Non-European LPs are driving the institutional...
Is Private Credit Normalizing?
First-quarter data say private credit is "normalizing, not deteriorating." But every reassuring number describes the asset side. A facility-level panel of 195 BDCs shows the fragility sits on the liability side —...
The Funding Chain Paradox: European Banks, Private Credit, and the Backstop That Depends on What It Replaces
Private credit acts as a countercyclical backstop for the real economy — but that backstop is itself funded by the banking system. Drawing on two new papers and a presentation to the ESRB Advisory Scientific...
What's Next for Europe?
Europe's private credit market is at an inflection point. The capital exists, regulatory reform is unlocking it, but governance hasn't kept pace. The key question: under what conditions does private credit growth...
The future is hybrid
The debate "Banks vs. Private Credit" is the wrong framing. Look at how European private credit actually originates deals today, and where the growth is.
The Banks Are Fine. That's the Problem.
Regulators are stress-testing whether private credit will infect the banking system. SEC filings from the three largest non-traded BDCs show the opposite: banks are being repaid, not exposed. The $13.4 billion in new...
Was die Nachfolge-Krise im deutschen Mittelstand für die Unternehmensfinanzierung bedeutet
Erstmals planen mehr deutsche Mittelständler die Schließung als eine Nachfolge: 569.000 vs. 545.000. Das KfW-Nachfolge-Monitoring 2025 zeigt steigende Kaufpreise, sinkende Investitionen bei ungeklärter Nachfolge und...
Valuation of Leveraged Loans - Implications for Private Credit
The price of CCC-rated loans declines while the other rating categories (BB and B) remain somewhat stable. And the price differential is worse than during COVID - and we don't even have a big macro shock (yet).
The Wrong Diagnosis: What the Private Credit Stress of March 2026 Actually Tells Us
The private credit headlines of March 2026 are striking — redemption gates, JPMorgan markdowns, warnings of rising defaults. But the dominant framing misidentifies what is actually breaking. A specific product design...
Private Credit - “Follow the Funding”
Private Credit at a Crossroads
When Hidden Leverage Becomes Systemic
“Improve transparency, strengthen oversight, and enhance market discipline”
Bankruptcy of First Brands Group, LLC
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