Evidence for the people who set the rules for nonbank finance in Europe.
I work with central banks, supervisors, the European Commission and the European Parliament on bank and nonbank credit risk, and I run closed-door sessions for boards and investment committees on private credit exposure and its capital treatment. Policy implications on this site are my own analysis.
ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee
Four-year term from 2025, succeeding Christian Gollier. Presentation to the Committee in 2026 on European banks' funding chain to private credit.
Geneva Report 27 (CEPR / ICMB, 2024)
Much Money, Little Capital, and Few Reforms: The 2023 Banking Turmoil, with Angeloni, Claessens, Seru and Weder di Mauro. Launched in Frankfurt and Milan.
Closed-door sessions
Private credit exposure, capital treatment and what the Radar shows, for supervisory boards and investment committees. Chatham House rule. Enquire.
Presentations, 2022–2026
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Research seminar
International Monetary Fund, Washington
Research seminar
ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee, Frankfurt
European banks' funding chain to private credit
European Central Bank · Banque de France · Central Bank of Ireland
Research seminars
FSB Regional Consultative Group for Europe, Vienna
Roundtable on private credit
ESRB Nonbank Financial Institutions Group, Frankfurt
Seminar
Norges Bank, Oslo
Research seminar
De Nederlandsche Bank and University of Amsterdam
Research seminar
Bank of England, Imperial College and LSE, London
4th Annual Conference on the Non-Bank Financial Sector and Financial Stability
Swiss National Bank, Zurich · CEMLA and Banco Central de Chile, Santiago
Seminar; keynote lecture
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium · Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen
Liquidity Dependence (with Acharya, Chauhan and Rajan); research seminar
Written policy work
The Funding Structure of Direct Lenders
CEPR Discussion Paper 21587, with Mistopoulou
Non-bank financial institutions' reliance on banks for contingent credit under stress and its consequences
VoxEU column, with Acharya, Gopal and Jager
Geneva Report 27: Much Money, Little Capital, and Few Reforms — The 2023 Banking Turmoil
CEPR and ICMB, with Angeloni, Claessens, Seru and Weder di Mauro; VoxEU summary 11 Sep 2024 · PDF
Wie stabil ist das europäische Bankensystem?
ifo Schnelldienst 7/2024
Silicon Valley Bank's insolvency highlights the risk of similar investors
VoxEU column, with Georg and Pierret
Demandable claims on bank liquidity complicate the unwinding of central bank balance sheets
VoxEU column, with Acharya, Chauhan and Rajan
Are Bank Credit Lines the New Source of Financial Fragility?
International Banker, with Acharya
Eigenkapital stärken?!
ifo Zentrum für Makroökonomik und Befragungen and IHK für München und Oberbayern, with Lautenbacher, Miethe, Peichl and Rumscheidt
A Note on the Use of Machine Learning in Central Banking
safeFBDC policy note, with Kinywamaghana
The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID
Covid Economics 10, 44–61, with Acharya
"Stress Test" for Banks as Liquidity Insurers in a time of COVID
VoxEU column, with Acharya
Feasibility Check: Transition to a New Regime for Bank Sovereign Exposure?
In-depth analysis for the ECON Committee, European Parliament, with Schneider
The Importance of a Banking Union and Fiscal Union for a Capital Markets Union
European Commission, DG ECFIN, with Acharya
European Parliament and CEPS studies on the ECB asset quality review, stress tests and SSM capital shortfalls
Capital Shortfalls in SSM Banks (EP, 2015); Robustness, validity and significance of the ECB's AQR and stress test (EP, 2014); Benchmarking the ECB's AQR and Stress Test — A Tale of Two Leverage Ratios (CEPS, 2014, with Acharya); Introducing the Leverage Ratio (2016, with Acharya and Pierret)
Discussion papers, 2023–2026
DP21587 The Funding Structure of Direct Lenders · DP20977 From Tweets to Transactions · DP20179 Fragile Financing? · DP20117 CovenantAI · DP20064 Shadow Always Touches the Feet · DP19729 Similar Investors · DP18583 Contingent Credit under Stress
What the Radar adds to supervisory monitoring.
Supervisors see European private credit through AIFMD reporting, insurers' asset registers and bank exposures, each with a lag and none at loan level. The Radar is a public, replicable complement: a US benchmark with loan-level marks, a European book that states its coverage plainly, and a default taxonomy built to catch PIK, amendments and covenant resets before a payment default appears. Methodology and series are open so that any authority can rerun them.