https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/Notes on private credit, written from the data.https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/nvidia-500bn-ai-financing-credit-risk/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/nvidia-500bn-ai-financing-credit-risk/Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/europes-private-credit-fundraising/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/europes-private-credit-fundraising/Mon, 27 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0000European private credit fundraising hit a record in 2025-2026, with $65bn raised in just nine months and six funds clearing €10bn, led by Ares Europe VI at €17.1bn. Non-European LPs are driving the institutional growth, while ELTIF 2.0 has quietly opened a parallel wealth-distribution channel now holding over €20bn in semi-liquid AUM.https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credit-is-normalizing-on-the-side-nobody-is-watching/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credit-is-normalizing-on-the-side-nobody-is-watching/Mon, 08 Jun 2026 08:00:00 +0000First-quarter data say private credit is "normalizing, not deteriorating." But every reassuring number describes the asset side. A facility-level panel of 195 BDCs shows the fragility sits on the liability side — short-dated bank lines, a building unsecured maturity wall, record redemptions behind gates, and the largest funds meeting outflows by adding leverage rather than taking losses.https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/the-funding-chain-paradox/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/the-funding-chain-paradox/Thu, 28 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000Private credit acts as a countercyclical backstop for the real economy — but that backstop is itself funded by the banking system. Drawing on two new papers and a presentation to the ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee, I trace the funding chain from European G-SIBs through BDC credit facilities to middle-market borrowers, and explain why facility-level transparency matters before the next downturn, not after it.https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/whats-next-for-europe/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/whats-next-for-europe/Thu, 07 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000Europe's private credit market is at an inflection point. The capital exists, regulatory reform is unlocking it, but governance hasn't kept pace. The key question: under what conditions does private credit growth strengthen vs. destabilize European capital markets?https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/the-future-is-hybrid/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/the-future-is-hybrid/Sat, 25 Apr 2026 08:00:00 +0000The debate "Banks vs. Private Credit" is the wrong framing. Look at how European private credit actually originates deals today, and where the growth is.https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/the-banks-are-fine-thats-the-problem/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/the-banks-are-fine-thats-the-problem/Sun, 12 Apr 2026 08:00:00 +0000Regulators are stress-testing whether private credit will infect the banking system. SEC filings from the three largest non-traded BDCs show the opposite: banks are being repaid, not exposed. The $13.4 billion in new debt that funded $8.8 billion in redemptions sits with CLO investors, bondholders, and insurers, not on bank balance sheets. The risk did not disappear. It moved to where nobody is looking.https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/nachfolgekrise-finanzierung/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/nachfolgekrise-finanzierung/Mon, 30 Mar 2026 08:00:00 +0000Erstmals planen mehr deutsche Mittelständler die Schließung als eine Nachfolge: 569.000 vs. 545.000. Das KfW-Nachfolge-Monitoring 2025 zeigt steigende Kaufpreise, sinkende Investitionen bei ungeklärter Nachfolge und wachsenden Finanzierungsbedarf. Warum Private Credit eine strukturelle Rolle in der Nachfolgefinanzierung des Mittelstands übernimmt — eine datenbasierte Analyse.https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/valuation-of-leveraged-loans-implications-for-private-credit/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/valuation-of-leveraged-loans-implications-for-private-credit/Sun, 22 Mar 2026 08:00:00 +0000The price of CCC-rated loans declines while the other rating categories (BB and B) remain somewhat stable. And the price differential is worse than during COVID - and we don't even have a big macro shock (yet).https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credit-stress-march-2026/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credit-stress-march-2026/Sat, 14 Mar 2026 08:00:00 +0000The private credit headlines of March 2026 are striking — redemption gates, JPMorgan markdowns, warnings of rising defaults. But the dominant framing misidentifies what is actually breaking. A specific product design has failed: semi-liquid retail vehicles that offered quarterly liquidity against 4–7 year corporate loans. That is not a private credit crisis. It is a maturity mismatch crisis. Meanwhile the data that actually matters — PIK activation rates, junior tranches marked above distressed senior debt in the same borrower — is underreported. The bank-NBFI back-leverage channel is where stress crosses the regulatory perimeter, and the transmission mechanism is more precise than most coverage suggests. And the European financing gap left by Basel IV constrained bank balance sheets has not changed because US BDCs got gated. This post works through the evidence and the implications for regulators and researchershttps://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/how-committed-is-committed-capital-three-structural-shifts-reshaping-private-credit-in-2026/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/how-committed-is-committed-capital-three-structural-shifts-reshaping-private-credit-in-2026/Sat, 17 Jan 2026 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/a-common-belief-if-corporates-diversify-away-from-banks-their-liquidit/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/a-common-belief-if-corporates-diversify-away-from-banks-their-liquidit/Sun, 04 Jan 2026 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/how-the-private-credit-market-will-structurally-adjust-between-now-and/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/how-the-private-credit-market-will-structurally-adjust-between-now-and/Sat, 27 Dec 2025 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/germanys-ceos-are-turning-more-cautious-on-investment-right-when-berlin-is-signalling-a-big-public-investment-push/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/germanys-ceos-are-turning-more-cautious-on-investment-right-when-berlin-is-signalling-a-big-public-investment-push/Sun, 21 Dec 2025 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credit-is-having-a-momentagain/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credit-is-having-a-momentagain/Fri, 19 Dec 2025 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credits-identity-crisis-convergence-regulation-and-the-erosion-of-differentiation/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credits-identity-crisis-convergence-regulation-and-the-erosion-of-differentiation/Sat, 13 Dec 2025 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credits-day-of-reckoning-what-the-latest-data-reveals-about-a-17-trillion-market-under-stress/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/private-credits-day-of-reckoning-what-the-latest-data-reveals-about-a-17-trillion-market-under-stress/Mon, 01 Dec 2025 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/when-hidden-leverage-becomes-a-systemic-risk/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/when-hidden-leverage-becomes-a-systemic-risk/Sun, 19 Oct 2025 08:00:00 +0000“Improve transparency, strengthen oversight, and enhance market discipline”https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/bankruptcy-case-of-first-brands-group-llc/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/bankruptcy-case-of-first-brands-group-llc/Sat, 04 Oct 2025 08:00:00 +0000https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/fragile-financing-how-corporate-reliance-on-shadow-banking-affects-their-access-to-bank-liquidity/https://www.sascha-steffen.de/commentary/fragile-financing-how-corporate-reliance-on-shadow-banking-affects-their-access-to-bank-liquidity/Sat, 17 May 2025 08:00:00 +0000